Posted on Wednesday, September 19th, 2007
In a sign of just how rapidly peak oil is moving into the mainstream, a report from the World Energy Council has forecast that conventional oil production will peak in the next ten to twenty years. But in an interview with Lastoilshock.com, WEC Secretary General Gerald Doucet insisted that the transition would be “managable” and that total world energy supply would nevertheless double by 2030.

The WEC forecast relies upon an assessment of ‘Estimated Ultimate Recovery’ - the total amount of oil that will ever be produced - from Germany’s Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR). This assessment is arguably too generous since the BGR takes OPEC’s highly questionable official reserve numbers at face value. But even on this basis WEC’s 2007 Survey of Energy Resources concludes that “the depletion midpoint - when half the EUR will have been recovered - will be reached within the next 10 to 20 years. Once that point is reached, the decline of conventional oil production is described as inevitable.” The BGR itself forecasts 2017.

Mr Doucet argues that massive efficiency gains, biofuels and coal will allow the world to cope with peak oil, but foresees much greater volatility.

Source: davidstrahan.com